Includes links to all 2020 Senate polls and polling averages by state. Daines has remained relatively popular throughout his first term in the Senate, but Bullock’s support has remained strong, as well. If the election is about Bullock and GOP Sen. Steve Daines — and not federal issues — Bullock has a good chance to win. Montana voters will be mailed ballots on Oct. 9, and results will begin being hand-tabulated the next day, according to Susan Ames of the Montana Secretary of State’s office. Previous statewide and congressional district election results data from the MIT Election Lab. “His take on guns could hurt him there,” Taylor said. According to polls from fivethirtyeight, Daines has a one-point advantage, while Real Clear Politics has the race as a tossup. Democrats need to pick up either three or four seats in the Senate, depending on which party wins the White House in November, to capture a majority in the chamber. It's been my honor to run for U.S. Senate. Steve Bullock for U.S. Senate", Montana Professional Firefighters - Steve Bullock, "The Senate seats most likely to flip parties in November", "Montana: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Montana&oldid=983766034, United States Senate elections in Montana, Pages with non-numeric formatnum arguments, Articles with dead external links from July 2020, Wikipedia pages semi-protected from banned users, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, John Mues, nuclear engineer and U.S. Navy veteran, Mike Knoles, mathematician, physicist, and data analyst, Cora Neumann, public health expert and founder of the Global First Ladies Alliance, Eric Fulton, Republican candidate for District 65 of the, Wendie Fredrickson, former audit reviewer for Montana State Department of Public Health and Human Services, This page was last edited on 16 October 2020, at 03:32. Election handicappers still give Daines a slight edge in the race. One of those opportunities may be in Montana. One factor that may have boosted Bullock’s standing in his home state is his response to the coronavirus pandemic. Bullock’s strengths are his name recognition, broad popularity and ability to lead Montana even when he faced Republican majorities in the Legislature. The Cook Political Report rates the contest as “lean Republican.”. “The science has long proven that the grizzly bear population in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem has fully recovered.”. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. Polls in the Montana Senate race initially leaned toward Daines, but recent polls have consistently shown the race being a toss up or putting Daines at a slight advantage. Today I'm suspending my campaign and endorsing Governor Steve Bullock", https://mobile.twitter.com/KnolesMichael/status/1236997949730611207, "Today, I am announcing that I am withdrawing from the race for U.S. Senate and supporting Governor Steve Bullock's campaign", "With Bullock's entrance into #MTSEN, Democrat Cora Neumann drops out and endorses him", "Bozeman Senate candidate drops out of race, supports Bullock", "As my friends and family know, I have been considering a run for Montana's senator or governor. As governor, Bullock advocated for expansion of Medicaid in Montana, which has given health care coverage to some 80,000 Montanans. Congressional district presidential results from Daily Kos. Daines still finished the first quarter of the year with a cash-on-hand advantage over Bullock, reporting about $5.6 million in the bank compared to his Democratic rival’s roughly $3.2 million. The single statewide congressional district elected a Republican in the 2018 midterms. Montana's at-large congressional district, running for Montana's at-large congressional district, Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs, Montana State Council of Professional Fire Fighters, "Here's who we think will win the 2020 elections in Montana", "Gov. Seven percent of respondents said they are undecided, and another 6 percent said they will vote for another candidate, according to the poll. The most recent polls for the 35 Senate races contested during the 2020 elections. Since World War II, Montana’s incumbent senators have averaged about an 85% reelection rate, but incumbents are most at risk with their first reelection, Parker said. With conservative U.S. Steve Bullock and Steve Daines are each at 48%. The Hill 1625 K Street, NW Suite 900 Washington DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 tel | 202-628-8503 fax. Racicot, a former chair of the Republican National Committee and George W. Bush’s campaign chief, said in an interview that he would vote for Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee. Sign In ... All Montana Senate - Daines vs. Bullock Polling Data. The Montana Supreme Court recently affirmed a lower court’s block of Montana’s “Ballot Interference Protection Act,” a 2019 legislative attempt to restrict certain forms of mail voting. Notes: The survey was in the field from September 14 October 2, 2020. Hillary Clinton failed to reach 36 percent of the vote in 2016. Taylor said data from Advertising Analytics show Democrats have spent $71.4 million on ads, while Republicans have spent roughly $53 million through Election Day. “I’ll protect your access to health care, even in the middle of the pandemic,” Bullock said in the debate. PPP’s new Montana poll finds the race for Senate as tight as it can be. The coronavirus pandemic has likely affected Daines’ campaign, as he’s a freshman senator with few major accomplishments, while Bullock is a sitting governor filling out his second term. “Daines is trying to tie Bullock to the national Democratic Party.”. Poll Date Sample MoE. Bullock has a net +4 rating as Governor, … So far, Democrats’ path to the majority has centered on four states: Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina, where Republican incumbents are fending off tough Democratic challenges. The open-seat race to replace GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte, who is running for governor, pits Democrat Kathleen Williams against Republican state Auditor Matt Rosendale. With a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, the poll suggests a tight race between Bullock and Daines, who is among nearly two dozen Republican incumbents in the Senate facing reelection this year. Results will start to display after 8 p.m. on Election Day, Ames said. Incumbent senators in Montana have enjoyed high reelection rates in the last 50 years, but Daines, a Republican, is throwing everything he has at his race against Bullock, a popular two-term governor — and a Democrat. So far about $124.4 million has been spent in television advertising on the U.S. Senate race in Montana, with that amount being fairly evenly split between Bullock and Daines. RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Montana Senate - Daines vs. Bullock Subscribe. Over $120 million has been spent on television advertising through Election Day on Nov. 3. Polls remain incredibly close in the state.”. Bullock has been seen as a moderate governor although Republicans are painting him as left-wing liberal. P. Click here to see the presidential forecast. [2], As the Green Party was removed from the ballot and both Libertarian nominees withdrew, this will be the first time since 1988 that there will be no non-Republican or Democratic candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana. Kathleen Williams (D) vs. Matt Rosendale (R). After all, Mr. Trump won the state by 20 points in 2016. Steve Bullock just made the Montana Senate race competitive for Democrats", "No Alternative Candidates on Montana Ballot for Any Congressional Race", "Hardware store manager enters Montana U.S. Senate race", "Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises", "Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte", "2020 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS", "Montana Gov. He long resisted calls to challenge Daines for the Senate seat before reversing course in March. One frustrated Montanan is former Governor Marc Racicot, a Republican who said this week he’s not supporting President Donald Trump. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined. This race is still too close to call, according to Taylor. Includes links to all 2020 Senate polls and polling averages by state. Originally this seat was projected to be a likely Republican hold. Some may wonder how a Senate race in Montana could be so close. Montana election results are finalized once the post-election audit, county canvass, and the state canvass are complete, pending any potential recount activities within five days of the official canvass, Ames said. As the only election in America with a sitting governor seeking national office, the Montana Senate race could affect the tilt of power in the Senate, where Republicans hold a slim four-vote majority.

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