cuban intelligence in venezuela

Needless to say, the arrival of Cuban personnel to Venezuela provided an ideal cover in which to place intelligence operatives. Nevertheless, a Cuban request for economic assistance was rejected by Caracas. It is difficult to forecast how the bilateral relation will behave in a foreseeable future. Nevertheless, prolonged economic distress could endanger the political survival of the Castro regime. Other revealing facts include the Cuban role in the conformation of the paramilitary cells called ‘Bolivarian circles,’ groups of armed civilian militias responsible for protecting the Chavez regime and intimidating his opponents as well as in the implementation of draconian measures of social control, such as the connection between the issuance of official IDs and the introduction of pervasive digital surveillance systems. In addition to the Cubans, the Russians are helping the Maduro government. The Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), Luis Almagro, has urged the Trump Administration to increase pressureon Maduro, with special emphasis on the “Cuban factor”. For instance, it supported several Marxist insurgencies in Central and South America during the Cold War. Interestingly, according to eyewitness accounts, in a probable attempt to take advantage of his superstitious streak, his immediate entourage even includes Cuban witch doctors who practice Santería, a syncretic Afro-Cuban esoteric religion. The role of Cuba is becoming more and more important for the survival of Maduro and his cronies as dissidence and criticism among members of the military and political elite is becoming more and more significant. Intelligence reports delivered right to your inbox, Analysis from our global network of experts. In effect, they need to be understood as a substantial force multiplier. It is arguably one of Cuba’s biggest geostrategic accomplishments. Its training and methods are based on the development of professionalism rather than improvisation, unlike other Latin American intelligence agencies. Therefore, their geopolitical bets had to be hedged. In case a purge is conducted, its agents might find themselves evicted but, if a conflict breaks out, the Cubans will also be engulfed and the G2 will have no choice but to get involved. Both were ultimately neutralized by Venezuelan armed forces. Eventually, the steep decline of global oil prices and the subsequent collapse of the Venezuelan economy, due to both erratic policies – likely motivated by ideological reasons rather than pragmatic decisions – and to a rampant kleptocracy, started fueling increasing socio-political tensions. Whether he was aware of that or whether he was instead playing that role rather unwittingly is hard to determine but the dictates of political realism indicate it is a possibility that cannot be dismissed. Ideological and military training was now imparted by Cuban instructors. In his quest to find political support for his so called Bolivarian movement, Chavez visited Havana and was euphorically received by Fidel Castro himself, even though he had voiced support for the then sitting Venezuelan President Carlos Andrés Pérez, the leader Chavez intended to remove from power. Latin American countries, particularly in the Central American triangle are already in a state of anarchy and suffer from high levels of crime. In fact, Cuban military and intelligence personnel backed two forcible attempts to provoke regime change in Caracas through the instigation of an armed popular uprising. It has also managed to infiltrate US national security agencies and Cuban American political groups hostile to Havana’s socialist regime. The moment the United States gives in, the Maduro regime’s survival will be guaranteed. Moreover, the resilience that has played a key role in the survival of the Cuban communist regime for six decades can be at least partially attributed to its intelligence services’ abilities to monitor internal dissent, consolidate political rule, and keep at bay external rivals. Likewise, the Administration imposed limits on the amounts of money that Cuban Americans can send to their relatives living in Cuba. It would have been utterly unwise not to. “La Piedrita”is one of the most dangerous para-military groups responsible for violent actions in the Caracas area. The surprise coup attempt launched by Venezuelan Colonel Hugo Chavez back in 1992 was a major political earthquake, even though it did not produce its intended outcome. The U.S. must also continue efforts to approach key members of the military to persuade them to switch sides and offer them all needed protections. At this point the Maduro regime is using the negotiations between itself and the opposition as a façade to gain time. Through its intelligence apparatus, Cuba has achieved a disproportionate amount of multidimensional influence on Venezuela. In exchange for the generous Venezuelan backing, Cuba began sending doctors, sport trainers, technicians, and engineers to Venezuela. His Castroist ideological formation, his lack of a charismatic leadership comparable to that of his predecessor, and his background as a militant rather than as a career politician – let alone a statesman – raise reasonable doubts, especially considering Cuban intelligence might have regarded him as somebody that could be easily manipulated. These appointments were probably made not only to reinforce the regime but also to weaken the power of Defense Minister, Vladimir Padrino,who has become “less reliable” after he failed to avoid acts of dissidence during the events of April 30th. The Cubans were not just influential; they were now prominently involved in the decision-making process at the highest levels. The events of April 30thdisplayed a situation where members of the intelligence service (SEBIN) such as Cristopher Figueres and the army joined the opposition and secured the liberation of opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez. In this case, Maduro would peacefully agree to go into exile – probably to Havana – in exchange for immunity from legal prosecution and the unmolested conservation of his personal wealth. Negotiated political transition: A deal between Maduro and his opponents as the only way to overcome the Venezuelan crisis should not be discarded. Venezuela became a close ally of Eurasian powers hostile to US interests – mainly Russia, China, and Iran – and even non-state actors like the FARC Marxist guerrillas and the Shiite militant group Hezbollah.

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